CHINESE copper exports dropped last month from an all-time high, as domestic buyers took advantage of the metal’s rapid retreat in price.
Exports of unwrought copper and products fell 40 per cent from June to 140,940 tonnes, according to customs data on Sunday (Aug 18). Still, that’s nearly double the level of the previous year, with outbound shipments over the first seven months 43 per cent higher than they were in 2023.
Overseas warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange (LME) have been stuffed with Chinese copper after a rally in international prices, which hit a record in May, opened a rare window for exports from the country that buys most of the world’s supply.
A further drop in exports is likely as demand conditions improve in China. The arbitrage window for importing refined copper reopened this month as the Yangshan premium, which measures demand for overseas metal, rebounded. Stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have also eased from their June peak.
But the market remains finely balanced. While China’s smelters pared output in July from the prior month, pressured by tighter global supplies of concentrate, production was still 6.7 per cent higher than the previous year. Demand, meanwhile, is caught between rising purchases linked to the green transition, and the impact of a protracted downturn in the property market and shrinking factory activity.
“Cargoes booked during the export arbitrage window had all been shipped by the end of July, so August’s volume will drop further to the levels seen in normal months,” said Wang Yingying, an analyst with Galaxy Futures. “Chinese demand has picked up since last month as power grids increase orders.”
LME copper rose 0.9 per cent to US$9,201 a tonne as at 10.47 am in Shanghai, extending last week’s rebound. The metal is still nearly US$2,000 below May’s record. Other metals were higher, with zinc adding 0.9 per cent. BLOOMBERG
