Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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Disney
Outstanding Writing (Drama, Comedy, Limited/Anthology or TV Movie) Series Commentary (Updated May 22, 2025): When submitting episodes for Emmy consideration, especially in the ultra-competitive drama categories, less is often more. Submitting too many can spread the votes too thin — a lesson some studios have learned the hard way (ask “Ted Lasso” Season 1).
In the drama field, Apple TV+ is going all-in with one of the year’s most buzzed-about scripts: Dan Erickson’s mind-bending season finale of “Severance,” titled “Cold Harbor.” Already dubbed an early frontrunner, it’s the kind of submission that could easily walk off with the prize.
Apple isn’t stopping there. They’re also backing last year’s writing champ Will Smith (no, not that one) with the finale of “Slow Horses,” titled “Hello Goodbye.” The espionage drama continues to sneak its way into voters’ hearts.
Over at HBO Max, blood is thicker than water — possibly even thicker than the competition. Mike White is back with the explosive finale (“Full-Moon Party”) of “The White Lotus,” while Craig Mazin enters the fray with “Through the Valley,” the emotionally shattering “Pedro death episode” of “The Last of Us” (are we still in spoiler alert required territory?). Also from HBO, “The Pitt” is hedging its bets with not one but two submissions — the pilot by R. Scott Gemmill and another written by series star and executive producer Noah Wyle.
Disney+ has joined the rebel alliance (revealed by Variety exclusively) by choosing Dan Gilroy’s “Welcome to the Rebellion” from Season 2 of “Andor.” Meanwhile, Netflix made a strategic (and brilliant) call by selecting Debora Cahn’s “Dreadnought” from “The Diplomat.”
Per Emmy rules, if one writer pens every episode of a season, only one can be submitted — so “Squid Game” creator Hwang Dong-hyuk is going with “Bread and Lottery.” May the odds (and subtitles) be ever in his favor.
Pilot episodes are golden, but submit more than one, and you might be on the fast track to Emmy losing. Learning from past experience, Apple has submitted just the pilot of “The Studio,” titled “The Promotion,” written by the powerhouse team: Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Peter Huyck, Alex Gregory and Frida Perez. It’s a strategic move that could clear space for a victory, and for underdogs to rise.
FX’s “The Bear” is coming in hot with two episodes: Joanna Calo’s “Ice Chips” and Catherine Schetina’s “Napkins. ” The latter was directed by Ayo Edebiri and is widely considered the best of the meal (not just a condiment).
On the network’s other end of the comedy spectrum, “What We Do in the Shadows” wrapped its final season with a finale penned by Paul Simms, Sarah Naftalis and Sam Johnson. Each market got a different ending so viewers are still comparing notes — and scratching their vampire-loving heads — on which one they saw. With multiple prior noms in this category, one on the way out should come easily.
On the limited series side, things are simpler but no less competive.
Netflix’s “Adolescence” is emerging as the overall frontrunner. With all four episodes written by Stephen Graham and Jack Thorne, which means there’s no need for a single-episode submission. The whole season will be considered, and it is the one to beat.
The same tactic will benefit other contenders such as Apple with Alfonso Cuarón’s “Disclaimer” and Peter Craig’s “Dope Thief.” Each show will be evaluated entirely, simplifying the process (at least on paper).
HBO Max’s Batman spinoff “The Penguin” is placing its bets on Lauren LeFranc’s season finale, “A Great Little Thing,” while FX is getting bold with “Dying for Sex,” leading with its pilot “Good Value Diet Soda,” courtesy of Kim Rosenstock and Elizabeth Meriwether (Who said trauma can’t come with a quirky title?).
And then there’s “Black Mirror,” always ready to throw a wrench into the field. As already revealed, the anthology is entering two episodes: “Common People” by Charlie Brooker and Bisha K. Ali and “Eulogy” by Brooker and Ella Road. It’s hard to imagine a world where the latter episode (which stars Paul Giamatti) at minimum, isn’t nominated.
(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)
Writing (Drama)
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Writing (Comedy)
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Writing (Limited/TV Movie)
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