Nigel Farage’s Reform UK overtakes Labour in new opinion poll

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Reform UK has taken the lead in a major opinion poll for the first time in a move that will alarm Labour and the Conservatives ahead of local elections in May.

Public support for Reform, the rightwing populist party led by Nigel Farage, was up 2 percentage points to 25 per cent, according to a survey by YouGov.

Sir Keir Starmer’s ruling Labour party was down 3 points to 24 per cent, while the Conservatives slipped 1 point to 21 per cent.

YouGov said it was the first time its survey for The Times had shown Reform in front, although with a lead of just 1 point over Labour, this was “within the margin of error”.

Opinion polls less than 12 months into a five-year parliament are rarely an accurate predictor of how people will vote at the next general election and it is not the first time that a smaller party has led in the polls.

In the early 1980s, the SDP pulled ahead of both Labour and the Tories temporarily. In 2019, the Brexit party — Reform’s predecessor — was the big winner in the European elections, getting 31.6 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Liberal Democrats at 20.3 per cent, Labour at 14.1 per cent and the Tories at 9.1 per cent. A YouGov poll three days later put the Lib Dems in the lead at 24 per cent, ahead of the Brexit party with 22 per cent and Labour and the Conservatives both at 19 per cent. 

But Reform’s strong showing in recent months will ring alarm bells in Downing Street ahead of May’s local elections in England, with Starmer struggling to neutralise the populist party’s messages.

Farage’s party would introduce tougher immigration controls and is opposed to Britain’s climate targets, including reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Anthony Wells, head of European political and social research at YouGov, said the poll suggested three parties were vying for the lead.

“While it remains within the margins of error, it reinforces the fact that Reform is roughly equal in support with Labour, with the Conservatives slipping back again,” he added.

Senior ministers believe they can win back public support if they can show progress on priorities such as cutting NHS hospital waiting lists and increasing housebuilding.

But Farage’s party, which has five MPs, appears to be benefiting from a growing anti-establishment mood across many western nations.

Reform has been praised by Elon Musk, the technology billionaire and close confidant of US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly criticised Starmer.

Farage said in December that Musk was considering making a donation to Reform, but the two men have since clashed over the entrepreneur’s support for far-right activist Tommy Robinson.

On Tuesday, Farage told the BBC: “Elon Musk has an awful lot of opinions, some of which I agree with, some of which I don’t.”

Last week, a “mega-poll” of almost 18,000 voters commissioned by campaign group Hope Not Hate, and carried out by Focaldata, suggested Reform would win 76 seats if a general election was held immediately, including 60 seats at present held by Labour.

The same survey indicated a 3 percentage point swing towards Reform from both Labour and the Tories could result in the party securing 169 seats.

The YouGov poll suggested Farage’s party was more popular among men, those of working-class backgrounds, and Brexit-supporting voters.

The survey found Reform enjoyed its strongest support in the Midlands and northern England, with the party on just 13 per cent in London.

The poll recorded that backing for the Lib Dems and Greens was unchanged at 14 per cent and 9 per cent respectively.

Separately on Tuesday, YouGov brought back co-founder and former boss Stephan Shakespeare to replace chief executive Steve Hatch on an interim basis while it launched a search for a permanent replacement. 

The research and data analytics group said that Hatch’s departure was “mutually agreed”, although he has only served 18 months in the role and has faced calls to stand down by activist investor Gatemore Capital after shares dropped 70 per cent over the past year.

Shakespeare is non-executive chair of the board and a major shareholder.