6 Burning Emmy Questions Ahead of Submissions Deadline: From ‘The Studio’ Guest Star Count to ‘The Last of Us’ Category Moves

It’s that time of year again, where people want some statues.

The final Emmy submissions are due Thursday, May 8, at 10 p.m. PT, and if you listen closely, you can almost hear the collective scrambling across Hollywood. For those of us who live and breathe awards season strategy, this is when things get interesting. On the surface, it’s just paperwork. But in reality? It’s game theory with golden statues (and egos) at stake.

This year, the races are unusually fluid — categories could shrink or expand based on how many entries are submitted, and several major contenders are still holding their cards close. Below, I’ve broken down the most urgent and talked-about questions insiders are still debating, with implications that could echo all the way to nomination morning in July.

Here are the biggest questions still hanging in the balance:

Will “The Studio” overplay its guest acting hand?

Apple TV+’s “The Studio,” starring an invigorating Seth Rogen, is stacked with marquee names in the guest acting fields: Bryan Cranston, Martin Scorsese, Ron Howard, Sarah Polley, Zoë Kravitz and more — all eligible to submit in guest comedy categories. On paper, it’s an embarrassment of riches. But in Emmy terms, that kind of lineup can be dangerous. The Academy doesn’t always embrace vote-splitting in these crowded fields. If “The Studio” submits everyone, it could dilute the support for any one standout.

Even Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos makes an unexpected cameo in the most recent episode. Set during the Golden Globes, the episode features a brief but pointed bathroom exchange between Sarandos and Rogen’s character, studio exec Matt Remick. Sarandos, playing a cheeky version of himself, delivers a sharp line about contractual award show shout-outs before signing off with an insult. While the scene lasts barely a minute, Sarandos is technically eligible for guest actor, though sources say he’s not expected to be submitted. Still, his appearance is notable: a rare crossover where the head of one major streamer shows up, in-character, on another’s flagship satire.

My take? Pick your best two. Three if you’re feeling bold. But don’t flood the ballot.

What episode will “Severance” lean on — and is it the right one?

“Severance” came roaring back on Apple TV+ with a sophomore season full of emotional revelations and trademark tension taking place on the floors of the Lumon building. The finale, “Cold Harbor,” is a natural submission candidate — it’s buzzy, twist-heavy, and anchored by strong direction by Ben Stiller. But Emmy voters often gravitate toward character-rich episodes rather than pure plot. If they go with the finale, they’ll need to bet on the “wow” factor outshining the subtler midseason work. It’s a calculated risk — and I’ve seen it go both ways.

Will the lead comedy and limited/tv movie acting categories hit the six-nominee mark?

This is the nerdy part (and my favorite): Nominations are tied to submission totals.

Here’s where the numbers game gets real. Per Emmy rules, the number of nominations per category is tied directly to how many submissions are received:

Here’s where the numbers game gets real. Per Emmy rules, the number of nominations per category is tied directly to how many submissions are received:

The top races for comedy and drama series are guaranteed eight nominees. It’s expected the supporting actor/actress categories within each genre will be matched in count due to so many performers who are eligible and ineligible to submit in guest. But lead comedy actor and actress could slip to just five nominees if the submission totals don’t crack 81. Technically last year, even though neither lead comedy categories met the threshold, there was a tie which yielded six nominees. Since there’s parity, the two categories must match the number of nominees. Right now, it’s too close to call — and that fifth or sixth spot could mean everything for a rising star or a returning favorite.

What’s the right play for Pedro Pascal in “The Last of Us?”

Pedro Pascal’s situation is a classic Emmy conundrum. Technically, he’s the lead of HBO’s “The Last of Us.” But in Season 2, his character is gone after Episode 2 — meaning his screen time makes a supporting category bid more appropriate (and viable). Strategically, supporting may offer a clearer lane, especially with fewer legacy names and actors from “The Pitt,” “Severance” and “The White Lotus” clogging up the field. That could also present a clearer pathway to victory for the Latino star who made history with his triple nominations in 2023. He’s beloved, but the Academy can be tough on borderline cases. Choosing wrong could knock him out entirely.

Will Kaitlyn Dever opt for supporting, and can she snag a rare double nomination?

Speaking of “The Last of Us,” Kaitlyn Dever delivered a haunting performance that could land her a nomination in guest drama actress, and a frontrunner to win the prize — if she chooses that category. However, she could elect to snag a supporting drama actress nom instead, since there aren’t any rules that preclude from submitting even though she appears in less than 50% of the season’s episodes. There’s also the bid for lead actress (limited) that she’s hoping to pick up for Netflix’s Australian miniseries “Apple Cider Vinegar,” which she also executive produced. It’s a role many in the industry are quietly saying is her best work to date. It’s a delicate dance. Emmy voters respect range, but not if it feels like category shopping.

What direction and scribes will represent “Abbott Elementary?”

“Abbott Elementary” has no shortage of standout episodes to consider. “Please Touch Museum” is an emotional finale, showcasing the father-son tension between Gregory (Tyler James Williams) and his dad, while Janine (Quinta Brunson) tries to impress her boyfriend’s father.

Then there’s “Winter Break,” a holiday episode full of laugh-out-loud moments, and “Back to School,” the season opener written by Brunson herself, who made history with her writing Emmy win in Season 1. Randall Einhorn, who earned his first directing nod last year, could return with the same submission as Brunson, while Williams also stepped behind the camera for “The Science Fair,” which he may submit as well.

With 22 episodes in Season 4, the ABC sitcom continues its strong run, but the show will need to choose wisely to maintain its winning streak.

The nomination voting window runs from June 12 to June 23, with official nominations set to be announced on July 15.

Variety Awards Circuit: Emmy